Limiations
Research should state not only what it concludes, but where it can fail.
Meridian Allocation presents a structured approach to examining macroeconomic conditions, portfolio exposures and allocation decisions.
The framework is subject to uncertainty, analytical judgement, data limitations and implementation risk. This page explains the principal limitations readers should consider when reviewing Meridian research.
Nature and purpose of Meridian
Meridian publishes research and educational material relating to macroeconomic regimes, asset allocation, portfolio risk and exchange-traded fund exposures.
The research is intended to explain a structured decision framework and document how that framework interprets available evidence.
Meridian does not provide execution, brokerage, custody, portfolio management or account-monitoring services.
No personalised assessment
Meridian does not collect or assess a reader’s complete financial objectives, financial situation, investment experience, tax position, liquidity requirements or individual risk tolerance.
The research is not prepared for the circumstances of any particular reader.
An allocation discussed in Meridian may therefore be unsuitable for a reader, even where that reader agrees with the underlying macroeconomic assessment.
Readers remain responsible for evaluating the relevance of the research to their own circumstances and for obtaining appropriately qualified professional advice where required.
Methodological and classification risk
Macroeconomic regimes cannot be observed directly and must be inferred from incomplete and sometimes conflicting evidence.
Meridian may:
classify an environment incorrectly
identify a transition too early or too late
place excessive weight on particular indicators
understate structural changes in economic relationships
maintain a classification after conditions have materially changed
change an allocation shortly before markets reverse
Rules can improve consistency and reviewability. They do not guarantee that a classification, allocation or risk decision will be correct.
Data and publication limitations
Meridian relies on economic, market and third-party information believed to be relevant at the time of publication.
That information may be:
delayed
incomplete
revised after publication
measured differently across sources
affected by estimation or sampling error
unavailable during periods of market disruption
A packet reflects the information available at the stated decision date. Later data or revisions may produce a different conclusion.
Meridian does not undertake to update every previously published packet after new information becomes available.
Investment and implementation risks
All investments involve risk. Portfolio values can fall, and losses may occur even where the macroeconomic classification is broadly correct.
Implementation outcomes may differ because of:
entry and exit timing
transaction costs and bid–ask spreads
taxes
brokerage and platform fees
currency movements
liquidity constraints
ETF tracking differences
product structure
market closures or trading interruptions
differences between assumed and available execution prices
Cash can reduce market exposure but may lose purchasing power and may underperform risk assets.
Diversification and risk controls can reduce certain exposures but cannot eliminate loss.
Historical, simulated and hypothetical analysis
Historical relationships may not persist.
Backtests, model allocations, examples and hypothetical scenarios are subject to assumptions that may not reflect actual implementation.
They may exclude or approximate:
transaction costs
taxes
market impact
liquidity constraints
data availability
decision delays
product availability
operational errors
Hypothetical results benefit from knowledge of historical data and should not be interpreted as evidence that the same outcomes would have been achieved in real time.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
No guarantee of outcomes
Meridian does not guarantee:
investment returns
capital preservation
drawdown limits
successful regime identification
timely allocation changes
outperformance of any benchmark
that any asset will behave as expected
A disciplined process can still produce an unfavourable outcome.
The purpose of the framework is to make decisions more explicit and reviewable, not to eliminate uncertainty.
Conflicts, holdings and commercial relationships
Meridian, its operator or related persons may hold investments that are also discussed in Meridian research.
Where a material holding, payment, sponsorship, referral arrangement or commercial relationship could reasonably influence the research, it should be disclosed clearly.
At the date of this disclosure, the operator of Meridian does not hold a material personal position in the ETFs specifically used in Meridian’s published allocation universe.
This position may change in the future. Any material personal holding that could reasonably be expected to influence published research will be disclosed.
Meridian does not currently publish sponsored research and does not receive referral fees, affiliate commissions or other benefits for directing readers to a broker, trading platform, investment service or financial-product provider.
If Meridian enters into such an arrangement in the future, the nature of the arrangement and the compensation received will be disclosed clearly near the relevant content or link.
Meridian does not currently accept payment from ETF issuers, fund managers, brokers, index providers or other financial-product providers in exchange for inclusion, favourable treatment or coverage within Meridian research.
No product is included in Meridian’s research universe because its issuer or provider has paid for coverage.
Third-party products and information
References to ETFs, indices, data providers, issuers and other third parties are included for research and explanatory purposes.
Meridian does not control those organisations, their products, their data or their continued availability.
Product fees, holdings, index methodologies, liquidity, tax treatment and other characteristics may change.
Readers should review the current documents and information published by the relevant issuer or provider before making any decision involving a financial product.
Third-party names and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Methodology changes and corrections
Meridian may revise its methodology, indicators, thresholds, asset universe, portfolio constraints or publication format.
Material changes should be documented with an explanation of:
what changed
why it changed
when the change became effective
whether historical results were recalculated
If a material factual or calculation error is identified, Meridian may correct the affected publication and note the nature and date of the correction.
The existence of a correction does not imply that every prior publication will be revised.
Publication timing
Meridian is generally prepared on a monthly schedule.
Publication dates may change because of data availability, technical issues, illness, operational disruption or other circumstances.
No representation is made that research will be published, received or acted upon before a particular market movement.
Research may be outdated by the time it is read or implemented.
Jurisdiction and availability
Meridian is operated from Australia and is intended for persons aged 18 years or older who are legally capable of entering into a subscription agreement.
Meridian does not represent that its research or subscription service is lawful, appropriate or available in every jurisdiction. Persons accessing Meridian from outside Australia are responsible for determining whether access to, receipt of, or payment for the service is permitted under the laws applying to them.
Meridian may refuse, restrict or cancel access where required by law, where the regulatory position is uncertain, or where providing the service would create obligations that Meridian is not able to satisfy.
Meridian is not directed to any person in a jurisdiction where offering or providing the service would be unlawful.
Business information and enquiries
Operated by: Meridian Allocation
Australian Business Number: [ABN]
Location: VIC, AUSTRALIA
Contact: support@meridianallocation.com
Subscription, cancellation and payment terms are available on the Subscribe, Terms and Cancellation pages.
Questions about these disclosures may be submitted through the Meridian enquiry form.