Research Notes

Research Notes

Essays on macro regimes, portfolio construction, risk, and the decision process behind Meridian Allocation.

01

Macro regime classification

02

Portfolio construction

03

Cross-asset behaviour

04

Risk and drawdown control

05

Systematic decision processes

06

Meridian methodology

Decision Framework

9 min

Why Rules Beat Discretion in Asset Allocation

Why Rules Beat Discretion in Asset Allocation

Why explicit rules improve consistency, auditability, narrative resistance, and risk discipline without eliminating judgement.

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Systematic Investing

5 min

Systematic Does Not Mean Robust

Systematic Does Not Mean Robust

Why explicit rules can still fail through overfitting, unstable regimes, fragile parameters, and weak implementation.

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Portfolio Construction

8 min

How Institutional Portfolios Actually Allocate Capital

How Institutional Portfolios Actually Allocate Capital

How institutions separate objectives, policy allocation, tactical decisions, risk budgets, and implementation.

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Correlation & Diversification

6 min

The Hidden Risk of Correlation Shifts

The Hidden Risk of Correlation Shifts

How portfolios that appear diversified can become concentrated when cross-asset relationships change.

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Asset Behavior

5 min

Why Commodities Are Not a Universal Inflation Hedge

Why Commodities Are Not a Universal Inflation Hedge

Why commodity performance depends on the source, persistence, and market pricing of inflation.

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Asset Behavior

8 min

Why Bonds Don’t Always Hedge Equities

Why Bonds Don’t Always Hedge Equities

Why the equity–bond relationship depends on inflation, policy credibility, valuation, and the source of the market shock.

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Meridian Overview

6 min

Start Here: What Meridian Allocation Is, Who It Is For, and How It Helps

Start Here: What Meridian Allocation Is, Who It Is For, and How It Helps

What Meridian produces, how its allocation process works, who it is designed for, and what it does not attempt to provide.

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Portfolio Construction

5 min

Why Cash Is a Strategic Allocation Decision

Why Cash Is a Strategic Allocation Decision

Why cash can preserve optionality, control drawdowns, and prevent a portfolio from inventing conviction.

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Correlation & Diversification

8 min

Why Correlations Matter More in Stress Than in Theory

Why Correlations Matter More in Stress Than in Theory

Why diversification should be judged by how relationships behave during stress, not only by long-run averages.

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Portfolio Construction

8 min

Why Static Portfolios Are Disguised Macro Bets

Why Static Portfolios Are Disguised Macro Bets

Why a fixed allocation still embeds a persistent view about growth, inflation, and cross-asset behaviour.

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Macro Regimes

7 min

Why Static Diversification Fails Across Macro Regimes

Why Static Diversification Fails Across Macro Regimes

Why a portfolio that appears diversified in normal conditions can become concentrated when the macro environment changes.

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Portfolio Construction

6 min

Why Cash Is a Position, Not a Failure

Why Cash Is a Position, Not a Failure

Why holding cash can be an active risk decision when the portfolio is not being paid adequately for exposure.

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Risk & Drawdowns

8 min

What Actually Causes Large Portfolio Drawdowns

What Actually Causes Large Portfolio Drawdowns

How concentration, correlation shifts, leverage, liquidity, and delayed risk reduction combine during major losses.

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Risk & Drawdowns

7 min

Why Drawdown Control Matters More Than Returns

Why Drawdown Control Matters More Than Returns

Why avoiding process-breaking losses can matter more than maximising headline returns.

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Macro Regimes

8 min

How Allocation Adjusts Across Macro Regimes

How Allocation Adjusts Across Macro Regimes

How changing growth and inflation conditions alter the relative case for equities, bonds, commodities, gold, and cash.

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Methodology

6 min

How I Classify Macro Regimes

How I Classify Macro Regimes

How Meridian organises growth and inflation evidence into a transparent macro regime classification.

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Decision Framework

5 min

Why Regime Classification Matters More Than Prediction

Why Regime Classification Matters More Than Prediction

Why a portfolio process should classify the current environment rather than depend on precise forecasts.

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